League of Ireland - week 3

Odds for this week

Home Draw Away BPP

• Derry City v St Patrick's 89/100 5/2 4/1 102%
• Galway United v Drogheda 17/5 49/20 51/50 102%
• UCD v Cork City 11/4 11/5 32/25 102%
• Waterford v Bray Wanderers 38/25 9/4 47/20 101%
• Longford Town v Sligo Rovers 43/25 23/10 48/25 102%

========== source: bestbetting.com



Derry v St Pats – Live on TV and in play betting
High flying St Pats face their biggest test of the season as they travel to a Derry side smarting from their first loss of the season at Linfield on Tuesday night. Derry’s midfield was overrun in that game and they face arguably a tougher task tonight with Ndo, Kirby and particularly Fahey in terrific form. The 4.9 available at betfair on Pats tempts but no bet can be made until Gary O’Neill’s fitness is confirmed. If he does it may pay to back St Pats +1 on the handicap market at 10/11 with Paddy Power.

Team news; Derry are missing Dave Rogers who is suspended after a late red card last week. Pat Fenlon spoke of his disappointment of losing “key battles” on Tuesday and may shuffle his midfield. St Pats add Stephen Paisley to the squad but expect to play the same 11 who defeated Waterford 3-0 if O’Neill is fit

Last five games
Derry City
Mar 20, 2007: Linfield 2-1 Derry City
Mar 17, 2007: Sligo Rovers 0-2 Derry City
Mar 12, 2007: Derry City 0-0 Drogheda Utd
Mar 9, 2007: Derry City 1-0 Bray Wanderers
Feb 26, 2007: Glentoran 0-1 Derry City

St Patricks Ath
Mar 19, 2007: Dungannon Swifts 2-2 St Patricks Ath
Mar 16, 2007: St Patricks Ath 3-0 Waterford Utd
Mar 12, 2007: Cork City 1-3 St Patricks Ath
Mar 10, 2007: Longford Town 1-2 St Patricks Ath
Feb 26, 2007: St Patricks Ath 3-0 Portadown

Galway v Drogheda
Galway’s hard fought draw in Cork last week will have gone some way to ease supporters fears after the first game defeat to Sligo. However I’d expect Drogheda to have enough (even without the suspended Paul Keegan) to beat a Galway side now that they’ve found the way to goal and evens can be found at betfair

Longford v Sligo
A tough game to call in what could already be a crucial game in the fight against relegation. Sligo’s woes continue as players criticise the club’s handling of Rob McDonald’s sacking. Longford have lost their 2 openers and looked very poor against a moderate Shamrock Rovers side. Longford will be without key men Damian Brennan and John Martin. Sligo must do without Raf Cretaro. No bet stands out

UCD v Cork
Cork found their shooting boots in emphatic style on Tuesday night but little can be read into it due to the poor standard of opposition in Portadown. UCD showed good battling qualities in Drogheda and almost forced a late draw. As ever in Belfield, they will be tight and work hard. Once again Cork’s lack of creativity may cause them problems and Under 2.5 goals looks a cert, even if the odds of 1/2 do not appeal. I’d chance a point on the draw @ 11/5

Waterford v Bray
Bray were good value for their victory last week at home to Bohs (tipped here) and will feel they have enough to gain something from Waterford. St Pats easily beat the blues last week but Waterford’s home win in week 1 over Cork may prove a better indicator and with Clive Delaney missing for Bray, its best to leave this game alone.


Recommendations

St Pats +1 to win – 1 pt (if trading in play a lay of Derry may be preferable)
Drogheda to win – 2pts
UCD/Cork draw – 1 pt

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The Derry City v St Pats game can be viewed online at http://www.rte.ie/sport

LOI week 2 round up

3 out of 5 selections obliged with easy wins for St Pats and Derry City (available at above evens on betfair on Saturday afternoon). It seems I was right about Bohs frailties and Bray thoroughly deserved their win. Hopefully some people were more adventurous than me and took the 5/2 available on Bray with Stan James. Cork again failed to score and the live TV game witnessed their 2nd 0-0 in a row. The big shock of the round was a goal fest in Drogheda as both sides got their goal tallies off the mark in a 3-2 win for favourites Drogheda.


Once again I don't think I'll be playing in the Setanta Cup markets. St Pats are flying but Dungannon are in decent form and may provide sterner opposition then the Dublin club expect. Cork should beat Portadown, who are in disarray , but the odds don't attract. The Tuesday games look to be tighter and no bet stands out

Eircom League of Ireland - Week 2

Cork City v Galway Utd – Live on RTE and in play
Cork’s start to the season is obviously a worry to fans and potential backers alike but they should have enough for a poor Galway side in front of RTE’s live cameras. However at best price 4/9, a home win couldn’t be recommended strongly. John O’Flynn has yet to prove his fitness but has been the only performer for Cork so far in 2 substitute appearances. A last goalscorer bet at 9/2 (Paddy Power) could pay dividends if O’Flynn comes off the bench again. If he starts opt for first scorer.

Bray v Bohemians
The worries regarding Bohs’ new signings materialised last week and against a more settled Bray side, they are to be opposed again. Boyle sports go 23/10 on the home win and that price is attractive enough but it what should be a low scoring affair, maybe play safe and back Bray +1 on the handicap market at 8/11 with Boyle

Drogheda v UCD
Drogheda have yet to score so far this season in 3 attempts and are struggling to justify early season money placed on the outright markets. UCD played their usual solid and unspectacular game last week and once again, under 2.5 goals looks nailed on. I’d back under 1.5 goals at 15/8 with Paddy power for greater rewards.

St Patrick’s Athletic v Waterford
St Pats are certainly the team of the moment. Following last week’s gamble in Longford, the 3-1 victory in Cork and the news of the Kelleher takeover deal, theior spirits shuld be at very high levels. Waterford’s defeat of Cork was a shock to many and by all accounts they failed to create many scoring chances. Ahome win at 8/15 (Lad broke) looks a banker

Shamrock Rovers v Longford
I fail to see how Rovers can be price as short as 5/6 for this game. Longford have a team of established premier division players while the majority of Rovers players are untried at the highest level. Although they may be favourites, I can’t recommend a bet on this game

Sligo Rovers v Derry City
Sligo fans feel that last week’s comprehensive victory in Galway should quieten commentators who predicted their demise this season. However it seems many pundits thought too highly of Galway and all match reports suggest Galway gifted the game to Sligo. Derry’s lack of firepower is worry but Pat Fenlon’s side should be too strong for Sligo and the 10/11 price given by Boyle should be accepted.

Recommendations
1 pt John O’Flynn last scorer (Cork v Galway) 9/2
2 pts Bray+1 v Bohemians 8/11
2 pts Under 1.5 goals Drogheda v UCD 15/8
3 pts St Patrick’s Athletic 8/15
1 pt Derry City 10/11

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The Cork/Galway game can be watched via the web at http://www.rte.ie/sport

League of Ireland week 1 round up

A good week for me. My biggest ever bet came in at odds of 2.62 on Betfair as Pats easily beat a poor Longfor side.

With another large bet on unders in the TV game, and a small bet on the 0-0 in that game. I profited from every market entered.

I called most of the other games correctly as Derry struggles to beat Bray and land the odds of 2/5. UCD and Rovers ended up a dull 0-0. The one minor shock saw Waterford beat supposed title contendors Cork 1-0 with Cork's recurring goalscoring problem once again hurting them.

I won't be betting on the Setanta Cup this week with Pats in Cork and Derry hosting Drogheda.

Eircom League of Ireland - Week 1

Bohemians v Drogheda Utd - LIVE on RTE2 and IN PLAY on several sites
Bohs have a completely new team and could take a while for Connors to find out his best XI. Heary, Crowe and Fenn have strengthened them considerably but I'm not convinced about the players Connors brought with him from Sligo (although Burns does look a good player). Drogheda will look to start the way they did last year and for Doolin the result is all that matters. Expect a dour game with one goal settling it. I'll wait to see a decent price before backing unders

Derry City v Bray Wanderers
Derry''s price is far too short. Although they'd be favourites you couldn't recommend anyone backing a team at 2/5 on the first day of the season. I also think Bray will bemuch better than last year. No betGalway v SligoI get the feeling too many pundits are overhyping Galway. They haven't added significantly enough to last yers squad for me to confidently predict they'll win here against a Sligo team in turmoil. Mind you if you can get 6/4 on Galway it might be worth a play

UCD v Shamrock Rovers
Similar to above, I think people may be rating Rovers too highly. UCD are a solid premier team and consistently underrated. Usually solid at the back, they've retained the same unit as last year (only losing occasional left back Daragh Ryan to Cork). With 2 excellent keepers on show, unders looks an obvious bet. I'd consider small stakes on UCD to win 1-0 as I think they'll be just too strong for a developing Rovers team. 0-0 is a live possibilty though

Waterford Utd v Cork City
Anybody who read my thoughts on the Setanta Cup games knows my feelings on Cork. With Healy and Farrelly still ineligible, I can't see them scoring too many goals. They still should be too strong for a poor Waterford side though. Cork at 8/11 looks OK to me but I won't be backing at odds on in the first week

Longford Town v St Patrick's Athletic
Longford are another side in crisis. paisley has had his tribunal head and although the result isn't known yet, he's unlikely to perform well for Longford if forced to play (Professional pride aside). Longford missing Gary Deegan and Dessie Baker through injury and with last years main playmaker now with Pats, its hard to see where Goals will come from. Pats are likely to play with only gary O'Neill up front but with Ndo, Fahey, Murphy and Foley in midfield look to have more of a threat. Wth the setanta cup preparations already behind them, I'd recommend 4 points on Pats at 7/5 (Ladbrokes) or better f you can find it elsewhere (I got €160 matched at 2.56 at Betfair).

First division
I'm staying away from the first division as only Dundalk look to have any kind of continuaty with their squad.

Ante-post
I've only done one ante post bet this year. Georgescu (Bray) to finish top scorer ew @ 50/1 with PP. He scored 7 last year and was injured for parts of it. A full season with an improved Bray team could see him double that tally, and 14 should be enough to get into the top 4 for PP's e/w terms